Friday, January 13, 2012

Giants @ Packers: Final Thoughts

The Playoffs are almost here for the Green Bay Packers, and all I can say is its about time!

I've spent all week listening to analysis and opinions about the upcoming game against the New York Giants, and I've been surprised by the amount of people that have jumped on the G-Men bandwagon throughout the week and not only think that the Giants will compete, but that they may upset the Packers!

Now being a Packer fan, I found myself upset and confused by all of the people that were hyping the Giants. I had to force myself to step back a little bit and take a less biased look at the upcoming game. Here are my thoughts:

#1: The media is comparing the upcoming game with the 2007 NFC Championship game, in which the Giants had gotten hot at the end of the season, squeaked into the playoffs and won 3 road games, including a game at Lambeau, to go on to beat the undefeated, 19-0 Patriots in the Super Bowl.

My first thought on this comparison is that none of it matters and there is no reason to give any weight to it. The teams are completely different. Rodgers > Favre.

#2:  The Giants are the "Hot" team right now in the NFC.

Herm Edwards called the Giants and the Saints the two hottest teams right now in the playoffs. I'm just not sure what his definition of hot is. The giants were inconsistent all season but were able to make it into the playoffs by winning a mediocre division. Following the Week 13 matchup against the Packers, the giants beat the Cowboys, Lost in Washington to the Redskins, beat the Jets in what was a home game for both teams, and then they again beat the Cowboys to seal the playoff bid. Then they went on to beat the Falcons, who didn't look like they belonged in the playoffs in the Wild Card round. To put it into perspective...

The Giants have won 4 out of the last 5 games. The Packers have won 21 out of the last 22 games.

Enough said. Moving on.

#3:  Two Good Offenses. The Packers Defense is Bad. The Giants Defense is Good.

I will be the first one to say that the Packers defense has been a disappointment all season. But let me follow that up by saying that who cares? The Packers defense has done exactly what it has needed to do all season to help the Packers win games. The Packers offense continues to get early leads and continue to score throughout almost every game, and sure, the defense has given up a lot of yards and points, but when it comes down to it, it doesn't matter. The defense for the Packers knows the score of the game. They know that the offense is going to move the ball and score points, so there is no reason for them to worry and they haven't. All the Packers defense does is play along and wait for the other team to make a mistake. The Packers are leading the NFL in interceptions for a reason. If the game ever comes down to the defense making a stop, our defense has done it without fail.

The Giants defense has one of the best set of lineman in the league and they are a force to be reckoned with. The G-Men are going to bring 4 man pressure the majority of the game because they have the talent on their line to create pressure without blitzing, and if they can manage to do that, the rest of their defense can work in coverage. I am nervous about the Giants defense and defensive line going into this game, but I also have faith in Aaron Rodgers and the Packers' offensive line. For the first time since Week 3, all of the Packers' starting lineman are back together and healthy. In the last meeting during Week 13, the Giants came away with 2 sacks on Rodgers and he threw for 369 Yards, 4 TDS and 1 INT. Rodgers is one of the best in the NFL when it comes to dealing with pressure. He is also one of the best at tearing apart a defense when he is moving outside the pocket, so if I were the Giants, I would be concerned with how to pressure Rodgers while not getting eluded and torched.

#4:  Eli Manning is an elite QB.

Eli has had a great year. He threw for almost 5,000 yards and has an amazing amount of 4th Quarter Touchdowns. One stat that the Packers like from him is that he has thrown 16 interceptions this year. I dont expect the Packers to shut down the Giants passing attack all game. The Giants receivers are very good and are going to give the Packers secondary all they can handle on Sunday. But since Eli entered the NFL in 2004, he has thrown more interceptions than any other quarterback, and this year, the Packers are leading the NFL in Interceptions.

#5:  The Giants are finally Healthy. Oh wait, So are the Packers!

Key players that will be healthy for the Giants include Ahmad Bradshaw, who had just two carries for 9 yards in the first matchup, and Osi Uminyora.

Key players that are now healthy for Packers are Greg Jennings, Chad Clifton, James Starks and AJ Hawk and Desmond Bishop (both absent for first meeting).

Last season the Packers entered the playoffs with 15 players on Injured Reserve. This season they will begin the playoffs suiting 21 out of the 22 starters that began the season, only missing Safety Nick Collins.



In conclusion, the New York Giants were not my first choice for teams to play this week and they will surely give the Packers a very good game. However, the Packers are 15-1 and have won 21 out of the last 22 games for a reason. They are a very good team I don't think there is anyone who can argue against that.

I see the Giants attempting to drop as many players into coverage on defense by using just their front 4 to put pressure on Rodgers. If they can be effective in getting to Rodgers and can throw him off of his game, then they will put their team in good shape. However, I think that Rodgers will continue to do a great job at getting away from the pressure and either making plays with his feet or taking advantage by making throws out of the pocket.

I don't expect the Packers to rush the ball that effectively in this game, but any success that they have moving the ball on the ground is just going to make them that much harder to stop and it will give Rodgers the ability to play action on the Giants.

I think this game can be won by the Packers defense, or lost by the Giants offense. Everyone expects the Packers defense to be the weakness of the Packers, and they certainly have been, but if they decide to come out of their shell and can make some big plays, this game could get out of hand quickly. The Giants will most likely have to keep up with the Packers offense, and if they have any trouble moving the ball or the Packers defense can force punts out of them, its going to be over for the Giants.

So my final prediction for the game...

The Packers will once again start the game out quickly and get on the board early and often. The Giants offense will move the ball on the Packers defense both on the ground and through the air, but the Packers will continue to cause turnovers and put the ball back into Aaron Rodgers hands.

Final Score:    Packers Win, 34 - 17.

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